There are a number of things a serious sports bettor needs to have a talent for to be successful longterm. Possibly the most important of these is the ability to consistently identify value in the betting marketplace. But how do we find betting value? In the first of a new regular feature here on the BettingExpert Blog entitled The Think Tank, we will be asking the sharpest of betting minds in the BE community how they find betting value, where they find it and what sort of betting they believe to offer the best value.
Where is the value?
One of my firmest beliefs in successful sports betting is having the ability to go against the public. Some of the ugliest bets on paper are often the most profitable. And many in our BE community of tipsters agree.
Our Ice Hockey expert LaKukaracha says” Finding value is about looking for good odds in games in which you have a good hunch and not playing those teams with slim odds where everybody considers them a sure bet. Say Manchester plays against Everton and the odds are 1.35 on Man United. No value in my opinion.”
Toni77 agrees and says “In my opinion, the underrated teams are all over the betting markets and the true betting value is in finding those teams.”
Our basketball expert Maradona1 also sees no value in betting on the big clubs of Europe. He says “We can almost always find value in matches involving the big names in European football such as Real Madrid, Barcelona, Man Utd, and especially this season in matches involving Chelsea, Bayern and Inter. They are always big favourites when playing at home against “small teams” and more often than most people would realise, they have trouble coming away with a win in these games.”
One of our best football tipsters Zeljko follows this up and suggests “The odds we see from bookies are not based on actual probability percentages but they are rather based on punter’s bias toward a particular team. So in my opinion when the public is betting on one team and consider that team a huge favourite – take a deeper look at the statistics. That’s where you’ll find the value.”
Others believe that key to finding value is having quality information at hand. One of our most experienced tipsters Profitt says “We can find betting value when we possess some sensitive information, like for example when we find out that there may be a lack of unity within a particular team or that an important player may be missing due to injury.”
Our tipster Buffalo takes a statistical and analytical approach to finding value.”I always rate a match, race, event myself and do not rely on ratings from sites on the internet or newspapers. I love the statistical side of betting, even more so than the actual placing of a bet. I created a horse racing method which rates the horses in an upcoming race using past data, and I use the same kind of ratings for football and other sports.”
Meanwhile, Ahkel takes a situational approach to finding value. He says “Sports betting can at times be very situational. For me its about 30% statistical analysis and 70% situational analysis.”