Poisson distribution isn’t the solution in sports betting

One of the most popular ways of betting on football matches is to use the Poisson distribution and to compare the results you get with the proposed by the bookmakers like bet-at-home, William Hill and bet365 odds.

Unfortunately, the most popular in betting is not always the most successful. It has been proved that it is difficult to achieve betting success depending purely on the statistics. However, here are some details on how you can use this statistical method for your football betting.

One of the most important things before using the Poisson distribution for betting is to find the required number of data and criteria for how many goals would be scored by each team in the match. At the end you should have numbers like home team – 1.78, away team – 0.73 and so on which to apply to Poisson distribution.

When you have the relevant assumptions about the number of goals scored by the home team and visitors in the match, it’s time to apply them to the Poisson distribution. How does it work?

In general, the process is simple and after a few tries it will be automated so you would need less than a few minutes before every match.

What you need to do is to estimate the probability of each team to score the certain numbers of goals. Thus, calculating the probability for the hosts not to score a goal, to score once, twice etc… and the same with the away team you will have all the needed data.

When you are ready and you have the probabilities for every number of goals to be scored by both teams, you need only to mix them into a single table that covers all possible results to get the chance of each result to happen. Having this database it is only necessary to compare the proposals which the bookies like bet-at-home, William Hill and bet365 offer with your data and bet on those bets where you may have a gain in the long run.